Today there was supposed to be a hurricane hitting Hawaii. As is often the case, the hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm, then a little later, tropical depression. Weather here on Maui is not something that can be predicted, which is why I never really pay much attention to news reports that state that a massive Category 4 hurricane is about to hit the islands. In our five years here, there have been dozens of hurricane warnings and only one of them made landfall and as it did so, it was downgraded to a tropical storm.
The combination of steep mountain slopes, off shore winds, and hot, sunny days tends to make forecasting difficult. You’re just as likely to get it right if you roll dice with different weather phenomena written on their faces.